{"id":80,"date":"2026-10-03T09:41:24","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T08:41:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/03\/sri-lanka-cb-expects-ease-of-middle-east-conflict-in-its-inflation-projection-official\/"},"modified":"2026-10-03T09:41:24","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T08:41:24","slug":"sri-lanka-cb-expects-ease-of-middle-east-conflict-in-its-inflation-projection-official","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/03\/sri-lanka-cb-expects-ease-of-middle-east-conflict-in-its-inflation-projection-official\/","title":{"rendered":"Sri Lanka CB expects ease of Middle East conflict in its inflation projection: Official\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<div dir=\"ltr\">\n<div>ECONOMYNEXT \u2013 Sri Lanka\u2019s Central Bank expects the current Middle East conflict to ease and it to help curtail its inflation to the targeted 5 percent level in the second quarter of next year, a top Central Bank official said.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>The Central Bank has projected inflation to be in the high single digits through the first quarter of 2027 and then ease to 5 percent.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Inflation in September remained at a 37-month high of 8 percent and has been above the Central Bank\u2019s upper target limit of 7 percent for the past three months.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cWe expect with the ease of the Middle East conflict going forward, and also the base effect\u00a0from the second quarter onwards\u00a0will.. help to decelerate inflation,\u201d\u00a0L R C Pathberiya, the head of the Central Bank\u2019s Economic Research Department told reporters in a media briefing on Wednesday.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cSo we expect inflation to stabilize around 5% from Q2 onwards, and it will gradually move towards 5%.\u201d<\/div>\n<div>\nHe said although inflation remains high,\u00a0inflation expectations for medium term remain broadly anchored around the target of 5 percent.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe, in an August interview with Bloomberg stated that if oil prices remain around $80 a barrel toward the end of this year Sri Lanka\u00a0can manage inflation and expected it to come down to the target level of 5% \u201ctowards end of this year and early next year.\u201d<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>However, Brent crude prices have already risen above US$100 per barrel.<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cOur baseline incorporates external global oil price forecasts published by institutional analysts, including projections from institutions like JP\u00a0 Morgan, alongside baseline projections from international agencies such as the IMF\u2019s World Economic Outlook and global macroeconomic models,\u201d Weerasinghe told reporters on Wednesday when asked about the Central Bank\u2019s prediction of easing the Middle East conflict in its inflation projection.<\/div>\n<div>\u201cWe feed these independent forecasts directly into our analytical models,\u201d he said,<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cBecause no entity can forecast global oil price movements with absolute certainty, these assumptions are updated periodically.\u201d<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\u201cWe do not generate proprietary forecasts for world oil prices; rather, our outlook reflects prevailing independent global assessments.If those baseline external assumptions shift, our domestic projections will adjust accordingly.\u201d (Colombo\/October 03\/2026)<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ECONOMYNEXT \u2013 Sri Lanka\u2019s Central Bank expects the current Middle East conflict to ease and it to help curtail its inflation to the targeted 5 percent level in the second [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-80","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorised"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sripuwath.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}